The stock market's "Wolf" moment might finally be here.
In his latest technical strategy note, Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, uses the parable of the boy who cried wolf to describe the past year and a half of action in the stock market.
His takeaway? The wolf might finally be here.
In the 2013 playbook, which saw every minor dip provide a springboard for new highs, such oversold scenarios created excellent buying opportunities. While we think a short-term bounce should materialize soon, there has also been enough of a change in character over the last few weeks that a bounce in the SPX might, for the first time in a long time, fail to make a new high. Should that occur, we would most certainly be seeing a major change in character; i.e., the Wolf may finally be coming.
Krinsky breaks down a number of technical indicators in his note (he is, after all, a technical analyst), but the main takeaway is that when the S&P 500 hits 1900, we'll really know what kind of market we're looking at. Does the market break down further, or is it just another bounce on the way to S&P 2000?
Here's Krinsky's chart that shows the S&P 500's impending showdown with a number of technical indicators.
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