An analysis of the polls.
If you look at the polls, you might be puzzled, terribly confused, despondent, or all of the preceding. They are really confusing. I go to www.realclearpolitics.com, click on polls, and I can check Obama vs. Romney, the Senate picture, the House picture, and favorability.
First, Obama vs. Romney. There are eight polls shown, ranging from the 13th of August to the 24th. This post is written on the 26th, so the latest is two days old. All show close races, except for the NBC poll of registered voters, which has Obama up by 4. The rest have Obama up by 1 or two, except for Fox News, which has Romney up by 1, and AP which shows dead even. In general, the later the poll, the more relevant it is to now. A poll finished two weeks ago is good only for trends.
Three of the eight polls are of registered voters (who may or may not show up to vote.) I count these as worth less than the polls of likely voters. What many people don’t know is that the sampling methods vary, and that can have a profound effect on results. A straight random poll is fair. I know Rasmussen does that, so I trust this poll more than all the others, and I trust Fox News. Some of the others reportedly sample more Democrats than Republicans, deliberately skewing the results to make Obama look better.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is interesting. I wouldn’t trust NBC (known for leaning far left) to find out whether it’s raining outside, but I trust Wall Street Journal implicitly. It must be a real ordeal to be polled by them – they ask many questions. If you click on the name of the poll you see all the questions and responses, and they’ve been doing it for a while, so you see trends – a gradual decline for Obama.
The same polls report on Obama approval/disapproval. The results are close, but disapproval has a slight edge.
The electoral college polls show Obama leading, 221 to 181, with 136 as tossup. This is not encouraging for Republicans.
You can look at the races for the Senate and the House. The Senate shows 47 to 46 in favor of Democrats, with 7 tossup; the House 183 to 229 in favor of Republicans, with 23 tossups.
To summarize, the polls currently favor Democrats winning the Presidency and the Senate, with Republicans retaining control of the House. Same-o same-o, and the country continues on its path to disaster.
But, we’re coming up on the conventions. Republicans will likely get a bump, then Democrats will get their bump. We’ll then have presidential debates (October 3, 16, and 22) and the vice presidential debate (October 11.) These are rigged so that the candidates don’t really have to answer questions, but people will watch them. Romney and Ryan might just advance on personality.
On November 6, we’ll have the poll that counts. Will people pull the trigger and Say No to O? Or do they want more unemployment, more economic woes, and a drift more toward a European style big government? Stay tuned.